Rail fares in England will rise by almost 8% if the government uses the same formula as this year to calculate the 2024 increase, campaigners have said, pushing up the cost of many season tickets to more than £5,000 a year.
Fares rose in March this year based on wage growth figures of 5.9% in July 2022. The equivalent figure published on Tuesday was 7.8%.
The Campaign for Better Transport (CBT) said rail passengers faced the biggest fare rise in decades, while for motorists fuel duty has been frozen – a decrease in real terms – for 13 years.
With the rate of retail price inflation soaring last year, the government decided to alter its usual benchmark rather than impose a 12.3% fare rise. The Department for Transport (DfT) has already pledged to keep any rise below the July RPI figure, which was 9%, and to delay the increase until March.
The former transport minister Norman Baker, now at the CBT, said: “The government has yet to confirm next year’s rail increase, but if it follows the same formula as last year and uses today’s average earnings growth rate, passengers will face eye-watering increases.”
He added: “Rather than hammer rail passengers yet again, the government should freeze rail fares – as they have done with fuel duty – until the long-promised ticketing reform takes place.”
Analysis by the CBT found that out of 40 popular commuter routes into London, 27 would have an annual season ticket cost of more than £5,000 next year – with 10 costing more than £6,000. An annual season ticket from Southampton to London would reach £7,218.
A DfT spokesperson said: “Following last year’s biggest ever government intervention to cap rail fare increases well below inflation, we’ll continue to protect passengers from cost of living pressures and we will not increase next year’s rail fares by as much as the July RPI [retail prices index] figure.
“Any increase will also be delayed until March 2024, temporarily freezing fares for passengers to travel at a lower price for the entirety of January and February as the government continues with its plan to halve inflation.”
The government sets regulated fares, which cover about half of all journeys in England – including season tickets, anytime urban fares and off-peak long-distance fares. Normally, rail operators increase other fares by a similar amount. Fare rises in Wales and Scotland are set by the devolved governments.