(NewsNation) — It’s all about the math, delegate math specifically, on whether former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has a path to the GOP nomination.
Haley is staying in the race because she believes she can amass enough delegates at the GOP convention to secure a win. Is it an easy path to victory? Definitely not. But there is still a path.
Nominees for president are chosen by delegates at the GOP convention. A candidate needs to secure 1,215 delegates to win the nomination.
The delegates are determined by the number of votes a candidate gets in a primary or caucus. In Iowa and New Hampshire, those delegates were allocated proportionally.
For example, Iowa sends 40 delegates to the Republican convention. Since former President Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses with 51% of the vote, he won half the delegates (20). Nikki Haley won eight delegates. In New Hampshire where there were 22 delegates in play, Trump won 12, and Haley won nine.
That means right now, Trump has 32 delegates to Haley’s 17. And there are still 48 states that have yet to vote. Haley is counting on a few surprises, especially since Trump currently has a massive lead of almost 60% nationally, according to polling from Decision Desk HQ
Since the delegate count is probably closer than you’d think right now — despite Trump having won both Iowa and New Hampshire — there are reasons for Haley to have hope. According to a memo released by her campaign, Haley is looking ahead, and especially towards Super Tuesday (the day when 16 states vote), to keep her campaign alive.
Haley’s campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, highlighted several key points the campaign is counting on:
- Feb. 24 — South Carolina: Haley won the governorship twice. And South Carolina’s primary has no party registration. So anyone can vote in the Republican primary as long as they didn’t vote in the Democratic one.
- Feb. 27 — Michigan: The state’s primary also has no required party registration, so again, anyone can vote in the Republican primary as long as they didn’t vote in the Democratic one.
- March 5 — Super Tuesday: Eleven of the 16 Super Tuesday states have open or semi-open primaries. Of the 874 delegates available on Super Tuesday, roughly two-thirds are in states with open or semi-open primaries. Those include Virginia, Texas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina and Vermont, all with favorable demographics.
According to FairVote.org, in an open primary, “voters of any affiliation may vote in the primary of any party.” In a semi-open primary, “unaffiliated voters may choose which party primary to vote in, while voters registered with a party may only vote in that party’s primary.”
Haley is counting on these favorable demographics, namely independent voters as well as Democrats who may want to switch parties, to support her. They want to do this either because they like her as a candidate or because they’re trying to block Trump (this was a strategy employed by some voters in New Hampshire).
Since the New Hampshire primary, Haley has been ramping up her attacks on Trump, questioning his mental fitness and arguing that he’s diminished as a candidate who is close to 80 years old. She also called him “toxic” and said he’s lost moral clarity in a recent interview on the popular radio show “The Breakfast Club” in New York City.
But despite Haley’s new attacks, Trump’s 91 counts against him, more court appearances and his rising ire that Haley is staying in the race (he’s making more personal attacks against her), she faces serious headwinds.
She’s currently down, on average, by 30 points in her home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor.
In Nevada, she’s participating in the primary (Feb. 6), while Trump is taking part in the caucus (Feb. 8). However, only the caucus results will count towards delegate allocation.
A law was passed by Democrats that shifted the state’s election process for both parties from caucuses to a primary. However, the GOP decided not to abide by this and instead will hold its caucuses two days after the primary. The caucuses are expected to benefit Trump.
Explaining why she’s taking part in the primary, Haley told reporters recently, “The caucuses have been sealed up, bought and paid for, for a long time … that’s the Trump train rolling through that.”
Unfortunately for Haley, this would mean Trump would win all 26 of Nevada’s delegates.
In California, the Republican Party changed its rules and has become a “winner-take-all” state. Any candidate that gets over 50% of the vote will get all 169 delegates to the convention. Right now, despite California being a blue state, Trump has a remarkable lead in the GOP race of 55% over Haley.
And even though Michigan has an open primary, the state GOP changed its rules. Instead of all delegates being allocated proportionally, now only 16 of the 55 delegates will be awarded this way. The remaining 39 will be “distributed four days later in closed-door caucus meetings of party activists.”
Despite this, Haley remains undaunted, saying in that same aforementioned radio interview, “I know in my soul I’m supposed to be doing this.”
Haley has made clear she intends to stay in the race but understands that she needs to substantially close the gap with Trump in her home state. Earlier today, Haley defined what victory looks like for her in South Carolina, saying, “I think making sure it’s a competitive race, making sure that it looks close.”
The South Carolina GOP primary will take place on Feb. 24 . Polls are open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. EST. Early voting is an option from Feb. 12 through Feb. 22, 8:30 a.m. until 6 p.m.