2024 will be the biggest election year in history. About 4.2 billion people, or more than half of humanity, live in countries with upcoming elections.
Can democracy survive it?
That question may sound cynical. But, in the 21st century, romantic ideas of democracy are dying. The latest global reports show democracy contracting across every world region. And elections rarely renew faith in democracy. Authoritarian rulers use them to consolidate power. They inspire frustration, divide societies and spark violence.
Elections can also make democracies vulnerable to outside attack. On my recent visit to Taiwan, which holds presidential elections Jan. 13, Vincent Chao of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party told me that the election itself was a form of national security against China, which insists it will reunify with the island nation — by force if necessary. “Democracy is our best defense,” Chao said.
But democracy also makes Taiwan vulnerable. The Chinese government and its proxies exploit the island’s open politics to spread misinformation, funnel money to its Taiwanese supporters, and raise doubts about democracy itself.
Despite this, Taiwan’s election is freer and fairer than most.
2024’s first election, in Bangladesh on Jan. 7, will merely cement existing rule; the main opposition party is refusing to contest the election. Pakistan’s Feb. 8 election is likely only to add to conflict involving the country’s most popular politician, former premier Imran Khan, and the powerful military. And in Iran, the ruling mullahs are disqualifying thousands of candidates in March 1 parliamentary elections.
On Feb. 14, Indonesia will host the world’s largest single-day election, with more than 250,000 candidates competing for 20,000 offices at all political levels. But the country’s termed-out president, Joko Widodo, after weakening local democracy and a national anti-corruption commission, is using state power to back a successor, Prabowo Subianto, with a record of human rights abuses.
On March 17, both Russia and Ukraine are scheduled to hold elections. But it’s likely that only Russia’s unfree and unfair voting will go forward. Ukraine’s democratic election, meanwhile, may be postponed to protect its voters from being killed by Russian bombs.
In the spring, some crucial elections could reveal whether oppositions can reverse democratic decline. On April 10, South Korea holds legislative elections in which the opposition seeks to check President Yoon Suk Yeol, who has reduced women’s rights and press freedoms. In May, South Africa’s opposition alliance can take power from the party that has ruled South Africa since apartheid’s end.
Growing authoritarianism is the backdrop for the world’s largest election, India’s month-long voting in April and May. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is favored to win a third five-year term. But his autocratic behavior includes limiting the power of regions, punishing critics and a crackdown in Kashmir.
The world’s second biggest election will come in the European Union, where 400 million voters across 27 countries will elect the European Parliament in June. Far-right, anti-migrant parties hostile to democracy will likely make significant gains.
Across many countries holding elections this year, there are serious questions about the administration of polling. Nowhere are such questions bigger than in Mexico, where the outgoing president and his party stripped the independent national election institute of the resources to organize the June 2 balloting.
Then there’s the U.S. presidential election in November. Donald Trump, who is leading in the polls still claims, falsely, to have won the 2020 election and defends his 2021 insurrection. Now he’s pledging to bring “dictatorship” if he regains the presidency.
By year’s end, earthlings may feel as though they’ve lived through one long global election — and may start wondering if there is a better way. If they do, they might look to the global movement to establish governing assemblies of everyday people, chosen by lottery.
They might also start rethinking the nation-state itself. Nation-states simultaneously seem too small to address planetary challenges like climate change, pandemics and war, and too big to meet the needs of local communities.
If the point of democracy is to solve our problems, then national elections may come to seem beside the point. 2024 could then inspire interest in new democratic tools to better govern our local communities and our world.
Joe Mathews is columnist at Zócalo Public Square.