Rishi Sunak has told the Covid inquiry he did not see an email from Treasury officials warning that measures to reopen the economy in summer 2020 could cause a rise in Covid infections and risked delaying the return of schools.
Sunak, who was chancellor at the time, told the hearing that he had no recollection of government scientists warning that the phased package of measures, before the arrival of the “eat out to help out” hospitality scheme, risked pushing the reinfection rate, or R, above 1, meaning a rise in infections.
He was then shown an sent email on 23 June 2020 from Vanessa MacDougall, a senior Treasury official, to a series of colleagueswhich warned that Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, and Patrick Vallance, who was the chief scientific adviser, had said this.
Summarising a meeting of the government’s Sage scientific committee, MacDougall wrote that Vallance and Whitty “had made clear to the policymakers that this package was at the riskier end of the spectrum (with the potential to increase R above 1) and that they needed to be prepared to reimpose measures if necessary”.
She added: “Noted also this package reduces the space for doing other things, like bringing schools back in September.”
Asked by Hugo Keith KC, the lead counsel to the inquiry, if he remembered this warning, Sunak said: “I don’t recall seeing that email. That didn’t come to me.”
Pushed by Keith on how the Treasury and chancellor could not have been aware of such important advice, Sunak said: “I didn’t write this email. I rarely ever saw these emails. That’s just not something that I would have done. I would have been briefed here and there on things that I needed to know but I definitely didn’t see these emails on a regular basis.”
Sunak told Keith his wider recollection was that the scientific advisers had modelled the impact of the reopening measures. This included a phased easing of restrictions in areas like hospitality and retail, as well as people being allowed to gather, and they were “broadly comfortable” about what was happening.
“I think they thought it was consistent with R not being above 1, but I think from the beginning, they thought it was at that end of the spectrum – it was closer to 1 than it was 0.1, if I could put it that way,” he said.
But asked by Keith if he was aware that the scientists were beginning to question the speed at which the roadmap was operating, Sunak replied: “No.”
Keith questioned whether Sunak could realistically have missed the warning in MacDougall’s email, or whether “there were alarm bells ringing about the package already in place”.
Keith added: “There is no way any responsible Treasury could consider implementing plans without having at least half an eye on the epidemiological consequences.”
But asked if he recalled such warnings near the end of June 2020, Sunak said: “I don’t”.
Sunak is likely to face subsequent questioning onthe hospitality scheme, which was introduced later that summer and provided financial incentives for people to eat in cafes and restaurants.
Earlier evidence to the inquiry has heard that some scientists were alarmed at the message this gave in terms of mixing, and that Vallance and Whitty did not clear the scheme in advance.