There’s a chance 49ers’ Brock Purdy could lose NFL MVP race on a technicality

Under normal circumstances, the fact that the quarterback at the helm of one of the best teams in football is an MVP front-runner wouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. And yet because one of those quarterbacks is Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers, it’s a sign that this season’s race is anything but normal.

Purdy is neck-and-neck with Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott as the favorite to win the highest individual regular season award, with the odds shifting between the two on a week-to-week basis. As of Tuesday, oddsmakers have Prescott ahead of Purdy, at +150 to +175, respectively. Prior to 2022, this race would simply come down to which of the two quarterbacks got the most individual votes from the panel of 50 designated media members. But for the second season in a row, the Associated Press award will be decided through a ranked-choice system, where the voters can rank their top five candidates, and players receive a number of points based on where they’re listed in each ballot.

There weren’t any problems last season as Patrick Mahomes handily won out, receiving 48 out of a possible 50 first-place votes. A cursory glance at how other candidates performed last season in comparison, combined with the Chiefs’ AFC-leading 14-3 record, makes it easy to see why.

This season, however, the race is a lot closer, which could spell trouble for the front-runners regarding this vote. Part of that has to do with the numbers between Prescott and Purdy being so close, and each team having the same record through 14 weeks. Each player also has their own set of questions between Prescott’s easy start to the season, which included a big loss to the Niners in October, and Purdy playing alongside elite talent with an elite coach. When an MVP debate shifts back and forth like this, it can be a recipe for chaos.

A ranked-choice voting system leaves open the possibility of one candidate receiving the most first-place votes, and still not winning. The WNBA this past season saw Breanna Stewart win MVP despite having fewer first-place votes than Alyssa Thomas (20 to 23), and the same number of third-place votes as third-place finisher A’ja Wilson (17). It wasn’t the first time it had happened in the league, as Sheryl Swoopes won the award in 2005 despite having fewer first-place votes than runner-up Lauren Jackson (16 to 20). Even the NBA, with a 40-year history of ranked choice voting, has seen this happen. In the 1989-90 season, Charles Barkley finished with more first-place votes than Magic Johnson, but was ultimately the runner-up to the Lakers star in MVP voting.

It’s not hard to imagine a world where either Purdy or Prescott finishes with the most first-place votes, but doesn’t end up with the award because of the plethora of other players who could go in the remaining spots. This could be either another quarterback, or perhaps even one of the skill position players who played alongside these high-performing quarterbacks. Tyreek Hill, for instance, could feasibly pass Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record, solidifying a bounty of second- or third-place votes that bump him into the leading vote-getter. Purdy could even be undone by his own team. Given the significant contributions the 49ers get on offense from Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams, one could easily make the case for putting some, or all, of those guys ahead of the second-year player.

“When I get asked the question and stuff, it comes to mind, and the first thing is what an honor,” Purdy said. “I’m not taking anything away from that. It’s what an honor, and very honored to hear that. But at the same time, I’m trying to do what I can for this team, for this Sunday, and for this practice or this meeting. I’m not getting caught up in awards and stuff like that.”

It’s certainly good to hear such humility from a star player like that, but it’s perhaps just as good to hear that he’s not thinking about what could be with MVP given how potentially convoluted the final result could be.